2008 Iowa Republican Caucus Predictions

With the caucus only a couple days away, it is time for me to make my prediction for the outcome.

But before I do, just a short reminder of how the process works. Between 6 to 7 pm those who want to participate need to show up at the site for their precinct. The person needs to be registered as a Republican. If the person isn't registered or is registered as an Independent or a Democrat he will have to reregister that night. 17 yr olds can participate if they will be 18 on Election Day (4 Nov 2008). In DBQ the person will be given a paper ballot. This ballot is proof that the person registered & is eligible to vote. If the person loses it, he will not be given another.

At 7 pm the actual process starts. In many areas several precincts will gather in a common location. There will be speeches & then, where several precincts are meeting in 1 location, they will divide into precincts. The 1st order of business will be to elect a permanen chair & secretary for the precinct. Then the actual voting will take place. They can vote for any of the declared candidates still in, or write in another name. After everyone votes, the ballots will be counted & the results for the precinct tallied. Everyone in the precinct will watch while the 2 people they designated do the actual counting. These will be reported to a county official who will be responsible for reporting it to the state.

But the caucuses don't end there. There is still the need to pick county precinct representatives for the Central Committee. They will also need to pick delegates to the County Convention & suggest planks to consider for the county convention.

That is a simplified description of the caucus process. The beauty of the Iowa system is that it is as grass roots as you can get.

Now for my predictions. The latest polls show the top 3 currently as Huckabee, Romney & McCain. Ron Paul comes in 4th. I see it differently. I predict that the top 2 vote getters will be Gov. Mike Huckabee & Congressman Ron Paul.

I can here people asking why? Simple, I see something that the pollsters are missing, a lot of the Ron Paul supporters. The reason they are being missed is that a large number of them have cell phones. Because those phone numbers aren't being contacted by the pollsters, these people are being missed. The battle for 3rd will be between McCain & Romney, but I feel it will be Romney who acually comes in 3rd.

As an interesting aside, this yrs caucuses will see an historical 1st. The cities of DBQ, Waterloo & Des Moines will have the results put up, in real time, on their outdoor digital billboards. The plan is to put up the top 3 vote getters for each party as results come in (updating as more come in). & eventually, the declared winners will be posted. This is a test program that if it works may eventually go nation wide. (The Main Stream Media is getting more & more like an old dinosaur, extinct. This is another nail in their coffin.)

I am looking forward to the caucuses. After Thursday my phone will see a huge reduction in calls. & the mail will see a huge decline in political ads. I am definitely ready for the calm after the storm.