Some Interesting Results From the Latest NY-23 Poll

I was looking at the data from a poll taken by Public Policy Polling in NY Congressional District 23 over the weekend. The poll was predicated on a 3 way race, but the participants were also asked 3 1-on-1 scenarios as well. & while all that really counts are the results on Tuesday, there are some lessons that the out of touch, willing to abandon Pro-lifers & its conservative base, Republican leadership can learn from.

(The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.3%.)

1st of all here is how the voters see themselves:

Liberal 15%

Moderate 39%

Conservative 45%

Party affiliation:
Democrat 33%

Republican 47%

Independent/Other 20%

Here is how the 3 candidates were viewed (L - Liberal, M - Moderate, C- Conservative)

Owen: L - 55, M - 40, C - 5

Scozzafava: L - 45, M - 43, C - 12

Hoffman: l - 9, M - 11, C - 79

Clearly they didn't see much difference between Owens the Democrat & Scozzafava the Republican. & Hoffman is clearly viewed as liberal.

Now to the results of the who would you vote for questions.

1st the 3 way results: Hoffman (C) leads with 51% to 34% for Owens (D) and 13% for Scozzafava (R). Clearly this shows that the electorate doesn't want a liberal to moderate regardless of party affiliation. It also shows that the push for more centrist, moderate Republicans by many in leadership wouldn't help, just hurt things, esp when a real conservative is in the race. It shows that a real conservative will draw more than just other conservatives as well.

Next the 1 on 1

A) Scozzafava 34%, Owens 37%, Undecided 30%. This was the only scenario in which she might have pulled out a win. But in what should have been a safe Republican district, it shows even more so how out of touch the leadership was. & that is shown even more when we look at the next set of numbers. I would be interested to know how much of the 30% undecided consider themselves conservative as well.

B) Hoffman 54%, Owens 38%, Undecided 8%. Here is the prime evidence of the mistake made by the Republican leadership. Again, it shows a true conservative can attract moderate voters & that being true to your base helps not hurts.

C) Hoffman 53%, Scozzafava 36% Undecided 10%. Again, more evidence that being true to the base & not moving to the center is the best way to go. & while this is just an assumption to make a point, lets assume that all 10% undecided are liberal & that Hoffman got 100% of the conservative. That means Hoffman was able to draw enough moderates to win. Like I said, I know that it probably doesn't play out that way. But, it once more makes the point that drifting to the middle doesn't help as much as they say.

A couple of other stats that make for interesting reading.

Do you regularly watch Fox News?

Yes - 45%

No - 55%

Do you listen to Rush Limbaugh?
Yes - 29%

No - 71%

Do you view Sarah Palin favorably or unfavorably?

Favorably - 43%

Unfavorably - 44%

Not sure - 13%

Interesting numbers aren't they.

Source: Hoffman leads big

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Sunday Scozzafava announced she was endorsing her Democratic opponant Owens. The result is a huge embarrassment for Newt Gingrich, the National Republican Congressional Committee as well as the state Republican Party for choosing her in the 1st place. talk about egg on your face for making a huge mistake. They betrayed their base & now they are reaping the results.

Scozzafava was the hand-picked candidate of former state GOP chairman Joseph Mondello & was nominated in a back room meeting of county chairs. This doesn't make them look good as I said. In this day & age this relic of machine politics shouldn't exist. But it does. & in this case it is more evidence of how out of touch much of Republican leadership is out of touch with its base & is set on self-destructing the party instead.

OK, this isn't going to be the biggest test of the direction things are going, the governors races in New Jersey & Virginia will be bigger. But it does give some clues that need to be paid attention to.

The main 1 is clearly, you need to listen to your base & not take them for granted.

Also, New Jersey definitely bears watching as Republican Chris Christie leads Democrat Jon Corzine 47% - 41% in PPP's final poll of the New Jersey Governor's race, with Independent Chris Daggett at 11%. FYI, in an interview Christie said "he said he favors restrictions on abortion rights such as banning partial-birth abortions and requiring parental notification and a 24-hour waiting period." He is not strongly conservative, but he is not super centrist either.