New Hampshire Primary 2008

Well the results are in. Nothing too surprizing for me. The biggest laugh I am getting is from the reactions to how wrong the pollsters were about Obama winning. It will be interesting to see the reasons why? Obama supporters voting McCain because they thought Obama didn't need them? The pollsters totally blew it? Some sort of voter fraud? Something else? & depending on what the reasons turn out to be, if they find out, it will be interesdting to see how the various media deal with it.

But what the media is somewhat ignoring about the Dems & Hillary's so-called upset is the delegate count. 1st of all she won 39% to Obama's 36%, an upset, but not that big & as far as delegates go, they both got 9. So, the win wasn't that big. But the news also ignored something about the Iowa caucuses, Hillary may have come in 3rd in votes, but because of the way the delegates are assigned she actually came in 2nd in the more important delegate count.

I also don't think Edwards is anywhere near being out of it either. This could be a race down to the wire & maybe even to the convention. That depends on a lot of factors esp that none of them makes a fatal mistake.

On the Republican side, nothing much surprizing there. But if Hunter & Thompson don't start on fire soon, they nay need to seriously consider dropping out. Also, despite the big talking about Giuliani not running yet, OK he wins in the 2 states that people expect him , NY & California. But, he needs to start showing some strength elsewhere. & if, God forbid, he should get the nomination, his ignoring these early states in the primaries & caucuses may come back to bite him in the general election. He won't get the Pro-Life vote & he may have burned too many other bridges to win in those states if it comes down to a close electoral vote race.

Then there is Michigan on 15 Jan. Romney is expected to do well there. But, because of his father, etc, it probably won't have any long term effect. But the opposite is true if he doesn't do as well as expected, it will probably do more to sink him than help him. Republicans will see this poorer than expected (even if he does get the most votes but less than expected) results as a saying that he may not be the best candidate & it will sink him in other states.

On the Dem side, with Obama & Edwards staying out of Michigan because of the state's being penalized for jumping the gun, any win by Hillary shouldn't have a huge impact. But, that will also depend on how the media spins it. Honest reporting will show the tarnish on the win, as it should. But will the MSM do so?

Anyhow here are the latest delegate standing for both parties based on NPR's 2008 Election website info:

Republicans

Huckabee - 31

Romney - 19

McCain - 7

Thompson - 3

Hunter - 3

Uncommitted (Iowa) - 3

Democrats

Obama - 25

Clinton - 24

Edwards - 18

I do have 1 other comment to make. These are NPR's counts. I have seen a slightly different Republican count that gives Hunter & Ron Paul a couple of Iowa's delegates. I don't see Hunter going anywhere at this time. He has just gotten too lost in the shuffle. & Ron Paul may have a surprize win or 2 ahead.

Remember, the above opinions/observations are purely my own. I may be right, or totally off base.

So, on to Michigan. The final outcome on both sides is definitely anything but settled. & even Super Tuesday may result in more muddying than clarity. This is definitely going to be an interesting, if way too long, cycle.