Another Caucus, Another Primary

Nevada had its caucuses & South Carolina the Republican Primary. On the surface, Hillary, McCain & Romney each had a win. & Ron Paul finally had a 2nd place showing (Nevada). But as always it isn't so simple.

1st Nevada. On the Dem side, Hillary Rodham Clinton won the vote count. But given the small voter turn out, the percentage may look good, but real numbers are that impressive. The total number of Dems voting was about 24.5 thousand . Romney alone got 22.6 thousand votes of the 44+ thousand caucus goers. The vote count win isn't the whole story once again. Obama actually won more delegates, 13 to 12 for Hillary. Obama is ahead in the oveall count. (CNN has done a survey of superdelegates & with those added in Hillary is ahead 210 to 123. But they aren't actually committed so, if Obama begins to steamroll they may switch. & if things are close they could determine the winner at the convention.)

On the Republican side, Romney won with 51% of the vote, Ron Paul 2nd with 14%, McCain 3rd with 13%. Sounds impressive until you look at 1 fact. The fact, while Romney did well overall & won every county except Nye (Ron Paul won that), for the most part he actually got 25 to 44% of the vote in each county. The exception, the 4 Eastern Counties next to Utah, ie where there is a strong Morman presence. There he won from 52 to 80 % of the vote. It could be coincidence, but I suspect not.

Meanwhile, In South Carolina McCain came in 1st with 33% of the vote, Huckabee came in 2nd with 30%. While Thompson came in 3rd with 16 %, beating out Romney with 15%, his distant 3rd doesn't bode well for someone who was expected by many pundits to win here. Instead of his campaign being on fire, it looks like it is going down in flames.

With actual delegate counts Romney is ahead but McCain & Huckabee are tied for 2nd. But that stat doesn't tell us much given Michigan was a Romney stronghold (a favorite son status). & Floida may end up being Giuliani's only win. Super Tuesday has no clearcut leader going in & may not have 1 in either party coming out. A brokered convention such as hasn't been seen in over 50 yrs is possible for both parties at this time.

& this is where the Dem superdelegates & Republican RNC member delegates could end up being the kingmakers. This is definitely turning out to be a very interesting cycle. & the early kick off seems to not have any effect in my opinion.

I also got thinking back to the olden days when a state's delegates were winner take all allocations & I decided to see how different counts would be if that were so. I know, if it were that way each subsequent vote would be affected. & that even back then not every state had winner take all. But let's pretend it is that way for the fun of it.

So here are the delgate counts using that winner take all for both parties:

Iowa - Obama 45 - Huckabee 40

Wyoming - Romney 28

New Hampshire - Hillary 22 - McCain 12

Michigan - Hillary 0 (no delegates awarded) - Romney 30

Nevada - Hillary 25 - Romney 31

S Carolina - McCain 24

Totals

Dems (2025 of 4049 to win)

Hillary 47

Obama 45

(No clear frontrunner, but if Michigan did count Hillary would have an additional 156 & a big lead of 203)

Republicans (1191 of 2380 to win)

Romney 79

McCain 56

Huckabee 40

(Romney somewhat ahead but if you eliminate MI he only has 49, so no definite trend yet.)

On to South Carolina for the Dems, then Florida (mainly show as the party is penalizing the Dems for going earlier than the rules allow & Republicans face the same prospect) & then Super Tuesday. It will be fun to see how well the pollsters get it, how many ways the pundants spin it & whether it proves to be a disaster rather that the kingmaker many states hoped it would be. It would be fun to see it come down to 1 of the last states in June or the conventions. What will happen could end up being entirely different than what any of us expect.