Pat Buchanan Must Have Been Listening to Me

I have to start out by saying that there are many things I totally disagree with Pat Buchanan about. But sometimes we do see things the same way. Rudy's pulling out of Iowa seems to be 1 of them.

The other day I wrote a post entitled Maybe God is Trying to tell Rudy Something. In it I talked about the pull out by Rudy from the Iowa Straw Poll & the possibility of his pulling out of the caucuses in Jan 2008. I talked about the fact that his doing both of those was to avoid a fiasco he knew he would face if he stayed in.

Well, Friday I got an e-mail from Republican National Coalition for LIfe with an article from World Net Daily by Pat Buchanan about the pullout by Rudy (& McCain) & what it means. (See Rudy and John run) In it he explains Rudy's pullout thus: "Having spent less time in Iowa than McCain or Mitt Romney, with an organization regarded as feeble compared to theirs, Rudy feared a crushing defeat on Aug. 11 that would have destroyed his aura as front-runner. Rather than be humiliated, he elected to forfeit the game." A crushing defeat would have truly been the fiasco I talked about.

Buchanan goes on to say: "There is a real question today whether Rudy, whose liberal stance on gay rights and right-to-life is anathema to most Iowa Republicans, will even play in the caucuses. Why risk a deathblow to his candidacy in what may be one of Rudy's weakest states? "

Interesting, isn't it? Or as Spock would say: "Fascinating!" (arched eyebrow) Buchanan seems to think what I suggested might happen will, Rudy totally skipping Iowa. & for the very reasons I suggested that he wouldn't play well in Iowa.

Buchanan makes some good points about McCain's pull-out & what Fred Thompson should do if he enters the race. But, he also points out the importance of the Iowa Caucuses.

"Neither the Iowa straw poll nor the caucuses are necessarily decisive. Sen. Phil Gramm won the straw poll in 1996. George H.W. Bush defeated Ronald Reagan in the caucuses of 1980.

But the Iowa Caucuses have always been important, and often crucial.

Jimmy Carter's victory led to the nomination in 1976. Kerry's victory led to the nomination. George W. Bush's smashing victory in the Iowa straw poll of 1999 and follow-on triumph in the caucuses propelled him through defeat in New Hampshire to the White House."

Its true that Iowa hasn't always predicted the actual winner, but the eventual winner has usually had to make a good showing in Iowa, coming in as 1 of the top 3 in a crowded field. The effect has been called the "Iowa boost". Buchanan points out how the pull out by Rudy & McCain hurts them. As he puts it, it "dims their luster." Another phrase he uses to describe their actions is "The McCain-Giuliani cop-out." Ouch!

On the other hand, the "Iowa boost" could help 1 or more of the so-called 2nd tier candidates, the ones that are strongly Pro-Life. Buchanan sees this as a strong possibility: "And it presents an opening for a second-tier candidate – former Govs. Mike Huckabee, Tommy Thompson and Jim Gilmore, Reps. Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo and Ron Paul, and Sen. Sam Brownback – to break out of the pack.

Whoever now runs second to Romney in the straw poll – especially if he can put distance between himself and No. 3 – will begin to attract attention from the media and see his contributions increase." & given the time between August & January that may be enough time for him to pull ahead of Romney.

& for me, in the end, having a strong Pro-Life candidate is what is most important. & Iowa will do its best to ensure that that happens.

(Note: Today's (9 June 2007) front page of the Des Moines Register has an article about Gov. Gilmore pulling out as well as the possibility that Gov. Thompson & Gov. Huckabee might do the same. The culling process may have already begun, they just don't want to admit it. Another interesting bit is McCain's justification for not participating in the Straw Poll, with others dropping out it won't be a "very valid process ." I think Buchanan is closer to the truth when he says McCain is looking for away to aviod risking a defeat that "could be fatal to his candidacy."

The Register article makes another good point, with the way so many states have moved up their nominating contests, the Iowa Caucuses, rather than diminishing have increased in importance. So, what looks good in theory, pulling out, may actually have the effect the candidates are hoping to avoid, completely derailing their candidacy.

Any way you look at it, it is definitely shaping up to be a very interesting 7 months politically here in Iowa.)